Net Overseas Migration to drop to around 260,000 in 2026, roughly half of 2023 levels

Australia’s population growth story is increasingly being shaped by net overseas migration (NOM). While migration surged sharply following the reopening of international borders, the latest data from the Australian 2025 Population Statement confirm that this surge has peaked and a gradual moderation is now underway.

The most recent population projections show NOM easing over the coming years, driven largely by changes in temporary migration patterns and departure behaviour. Understanding these trends is critical for migration planning, labour markets, housing demand, and infrastructure policy.

Net Overseas Migration Is Declining From Post-Pandemic Highs

Net overseas migration reached historically high levels in the period immediately following the reopening of Australia’s borders. In the year to September 2023, NOM peaked at 556,000, reflecting pent-up demand from international students, temporary workers, and visitors who had been unable to enter during the COVID-19 period.

Since then, migration levels have been steadily declining.

• NOM was originally forecast at 310,000 in 2024–25

• Updated data now estimates NOM at 306,000 in 2024–25

• NOM is forecast to fall further to 260,000 in 2025–26

  
  

This confirms that Australia is moving away from the exceptional post-pandemic surge and toward more typical migration levels.

Updated Data Confirms a Softer Migration Outcome

Since the original forecast was prepared, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has released an additional quarter of migration data. This update places NOM at 306,000 in 2024–25, slightly below earlier expectations and well under the 2023 peak.

While this is still elevated compared to long-term averages, the downward revision reinforces the view that migration is normalising faster than initially anticipated.

Importantly, the forecast is not based on headline visa figures alone. It is informed by early indicators of migration activity, including adjusted permanent and long-term border crossings, which provide a clearer picture of actual population movements rather than visa grants in isolation.

Fewer Temporary Migrants Are Driving the 2024–25 Decline

The decline in NOM during 2024–25 is largely the result of fewer temporary migrant arrivals. Several factors are contributing to this shift:

• Reduced inflows of international students

• Lower numbers of visitor visa holders remaining long term

• Tighter settings and greater scrutiny across parts of the temporary visa system

As a result, arrivals have slowed, even though demand for Australia remains strong relative to other destination countries.

This marks a clear transition away from the exceptional intake seen immediately after borders reopened.

Departures Will Play a Bigger Role in 2025–26

While lower arrivals explain much of the decline in 2024–25, the projected fall in NOM to 260,000 in 2025–26 is expected to be driven mainly by higher migrant departures.

Many temporary migrants who arrived shortly after borders reopened are approaching the expiry of their visas. As these cohorts reach the end of their stay, departures are expected to increase, placing further downward pressure on NOM.

However, this part of the forecast comes with considerable uncertainty.

Why Departure Rates Are Hard to Predict

Although more departures are expected, actual departure behaviour has remained lower than pre-pandemic levels.

One of the key reasons is Australia’s relatively strong economic performance, including:

• A low unemployment rate

• Ongoing labour shortages in key sectors

• Higher wages compared to many source countries

These conditions encourage temporary migrants to remain in Australia for as long as their visa options allow, often transitioning between visas where possible.

As a result, departures may occur more slowly than expected, which could keep NOM higher for longer than current forecasts suggest.

What This Means for Australia’s Migration Outlook

The latest NOM projections point to a gradual and managed decline, rather than a sharp contraction.

Key takeaways include:

• Post-pandemic migration peaks are firmly behind us

• Temporary migration flows are stabilising

• Departures will increasingly shape NOM outcomes

• Economic conditions will influence how quickly migrants leave

For policymakers, this reinforces the need for flexible migration settings that can respond to changing economic and labour market conditions. For employers and migrants, it highlights the importance of understanding visa timelines and longer-term planning.

Final Thoughts

Net overseas migration remains a central driver of Australia’s population growth, but the era of exceptional post-COVID surges is ending.

With NOM forecast to fall from 306,000 in 2024–25 to 260,000 in 2025–26, Australia is entering a more balanced migration phase — one shaped by fewer arrivals, rising departures, and ongoing economic strength.

The direction is clear, even if the exact pace remains uncertain.